NHL Playoff Futures: It's Anyone's Cup

Another NHL regular season is in the books, and it was one to remember. We saw history with Alexander Ovechkin breaking the All-time goals record. I never thought this record would be broken in my lifetime, but Alex was able to stay healthy and play for 20 years to break it.

Another thing that happened this NHL regular season, which ties into the playoffs, is for the first time in NHL history, the Rangers, Bruins, and Penguins will miss the playoffs.

If you asked me or anyone with any knowledge of the NHL at the start of the year if we would see all these teams miss the playoffs, I would call you crazy.

Let’s look at some first-round matchups and the outright market that is wide open with no clear favourite.

Maple Leafs vs Senators (Battle of Ontario)

Series Price: Maple Leafs -175

Spread: Maple Leafs -1.5 +122

Total Games: Over 5.5 -170

Regular season H2H: 3-0 Ottawa

This is a very intriguing matchup for Ontario hockey fans. The four-hour drive rivalry between Toronto and Ottawa, a series we haven’t seen for over twenty years. Expect many fans to travel, more from the Leafs side, as they have a much larger fan base.

The Head to Head is scary backing Toronto here. Does Ottawa have their number? 3-0 in the regular season, and if you go back to December 2023, 5-0 Ottawa. This is regular-season hockey, and Ottawa has limited experience in the playoffs. Ottawa hasn’t seen a playoff game since 2017, which is a significant fact in this series.

Besides 2023, the Leafs have lost three of the last four years in the first round. 

We have a significant advantage for the Leafs from a playoff experience standpoint, even though they haven’t had much success.

I don’t love that regular-season record; however, hockey is different in the Playoffs. I expect the Leafs, who had an outstanding regular season, to carry over their good play for at least a series or two these playoffs. I believe they are also built better for the playoffs this time around and have gone through many struggles over the years in the playoffs, which can bring a team together.

I wouldn’t be shocked if Ottawa wins this series. However, I believe the Leafs will find a way to avoid another first-round elimination.

I do like the over 5.5 games due to the Senators success vs the Leafs. I can see this going 6 or 7 games.

Jets vs Blues

Series Price: Jets -215

Spread: Jets -1.5 +100

Total Games: 5.5 -170

Regular Season H2H: Jets 3-1

The President Cup trophy winner, Winnipeg Jets, is not something I expect to say in an article in April. They have been a solid team the past few years and broke out the last two, improving enough this season to get to 55 wins.

The Blues needed that last game to advance to the playoffs. Before that, they had lost three games in a row, one of which was against the Jets.

I have a hard time seeing the Blues, the 8th seed, pulling off an upset here. In the NHL, we see it happen more than in the NBA, with around 20% of the time since 1994 using this format. I don’t see that percentage improving here. It is a good matchup for the Jets on paper when you look at the head-to-head stats, and they have proved that in the regular season, beating them 3 times.

Jets in 5 or 6 games; the value is with the spread here.

Outright Market (Odds Via Bet MGM)

Stars +650

Panthers +700

Avalanche +750

Oilers +850

Hurricanes +900

Capitals +950

Golden Knights +1000

It is tough to predict the Cup winner in most years; however, this year seems even tougher. Most books have seven teams with odds from +650 to +1000. It will all come down to who gets hot at the right time, matchups and goaltending to advance. I never invest much in the outright market; I suggest you don’t either.

How about that first-round matchup between Colorado and Dallas, two of the top 3 favs to win it all? I believe the winner of that series can make a Stanley Cup push and represent the West.

Value Outright

Jets +1100 (Best Price Bet MGM)

How could you not take a shot at this price on BetMGM. The team with the best record in the regular season, arguably the best goalie in the NHL, and a tough team to play at home and to travel to.

You can argue that the best team in the regular season doesn’t win the cup often, and the lack of experience in deep runs is a concern; however, at this price, a smaller unit is worth considering because there isn't a clear-cut winner this year; it is wide open.

In my opinion, the NHL playoffs are a lot more exciting than a similar format in the NBA due to the unpredictability of the winner. In the NBA, there are always a few teams that can win it. This year in the NHL, it is wide open, with 7-10 teams having a real shot to lift the cup.

Let the playoffs begin...